A new InsiderAdvantage poll, which was completed May 16 and 17, shows Rick Jackson with a lead of 4 percentage points against Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones.
The two will officially face off against each other and several other candidates on May 19, although early voting started April 27. Given the close lead and several viable candidates, the race will likely end in a runoff, which will take place in June, if necessary.
A candidate needs at least 50% of the vote to gain the Republican nomination without a runoff, and with eight different candidates competing for Georgians' votes, it will be hard for any singular candidate to receive at least half.
Jackson, a billionaire and proclaimed political outsider, and Lt. Gov. Jones are the two most likely candidates to face off in a possible runoff as the top two votegetters. However, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is not out of the race yet, with 12% of voters still undecided, according to the poll.
Currently, Jackson leads with a projected 31%, and Lt. Gov. Jones trails with 27%. Raffensperger and Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr bring up the tail end of the primary with projected 16% and 10% of votes, respectively.
The winner of the Republican primary will face off against the Democratic primary winner in the November midterms, with the Democrats hoping to flip the seat for the first time in decades.
In-person voting for both primaries runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on May 19, where Georgians can cast votes for Governor and a number of other state positions, including judges, secretary of state, and other partisan and nonpartisan elected officials.
According to the most recent polls, the Democratic primary may also end in a runoff, even though Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, has led the race by a wide margin for some time.
The race could go either way, with some polls showing Lance Bottoms over the 50% marker, and some showing her just below. If a runoff does happen, Lance Bottoms' most likely opponent will be former state Representative Michael Thurmond.
