The 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate race will likely be the most hotly-contested election in the country, perhaps the only true pickup opportunity in the cycle for Republicans. Could Gov. Brian Kemp (R) answer the call and run against Sen. John Ossoff (D)?
Gov. Kemp would be the natural choice to take on Sen. Ossoff, but while he would become the frontrunner in a Republican senatorial primary race, he is unlikely to take the plunge into the race.
This is how we are handicapping the senate race against Ossoff:
Governor Kemp – has the highest favorability ratings of any politician in the state. Every recruitment discussion starts and stops with Brian Kemp. He would clear the field and immediately emerge as the favorite.
He could raise enough money to neutralize the significant financial advantage Senator Ossoff will likely enjoy. According to our sources, Kemp remains very unlikely to run. Despite this, we expect recruitment efforts from party leadership to intensify in the coming weeks.
Congressional Delegation – several members of Congress will take a long look at seeking the nomination, should Kemp decline to run. Reps. Buddy Carter, Rich McCormick, Marjorie Taylor Greene, are likely to test the waters.
Statewide Officers – Insurance Commissioner John King has already signaled his intent to explore a candidacy. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is likely to take a look.
Our real question – if Attorney General Chris Carr fails to gain real momentum in his gubernatorial campaign, as anticipated, does he consider switching races? He was a former Senate Chief of Staff helping him out, and has deep connections in DC.
Yet-to-be-identified ‘Self Funder’ – In 2014, David Perdue emerged from a crowded field of congressmen, largely due to an outsider profile and the ability to stroke a check. Georgia is a big state with prominent executives. Surely someone from the business community will see the inherent weakness of the present crop of candidates and explore a candidacy?
The Senate race is meaningless until Kemp decides what he will do.
All eyes are on Kemp, again.
